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04/24/2020
keith@orindawoodstennis.com
Friday Thoughts: Percentages

Friday Thoughts: Percentages. 

Hi Everyone,

 

So, let’s start a bit with my writing process. Basically, I have this Muse, she’s great, and I sit around and wait for her to show up, then she gives me an idea, and I take notes. She can be kind of longwinded (Hey, don’t blame me), but she is well connected, and I don’t question the message coming down the pipe. Usually. 

 

Well, it seems she has been coming up with lots of great things to write about, as you know if you have been following these e-mails, but she has, over the past couple of weeks, been tapping me on the shoulder about writing an e-mail about percentages, and unlike pretty much always, I have been saying, “Nah, I don’t want to write about that.” 

 

She has been a good sport about it, and thrown me a couple of other bones, which I have thoroughly picked over, as you know. But every once in a while, she says in a quiet, calm, even gentle but yet assertive tone, “Hey, what about those percentages?” 

 

And I go, shaking my head, “Ah… I don’t want to write about that.”

 

And she’s cool, to a point, and humors me a bit, and gives me some other material. Try this, for Monday Musings, or that for the Wednesday Wonder. And I’m so grateful, “This is great material!” 

 

And you may wonder at this point, why my Muse is a she. Since I’m a he (very logical on your part). The answer: because she is. Not my job to choose. And way, way above my pay grade. But I like her, she is cool, and she speaks to me, and nothing feels better than that. To be loved and talked to. Accepted and trusted. Handed an important job, a calling. I’m cool with that. 

 

And besides, it’s a Greek thing. Check it out. Do the research. The muses are female. Everyone knows that. I took my Greek and Roman literature class in college, after all, so I’m not going to argue with that wisdom of the ages. Or the hot babe herself, for that matter. I’m all about reality these days. Loving what is. You take what you get, and I’m more than happy with what I’ve got. 

 

But I don’t want to talk about percentages. I can be kinda of stubborn, even when I know the medicine is good for me. 

 

The Divine (her boss) doesn’t really run a democracy, but there is room for grace, and freedom of choice, belief and of course, the basis of all human action and creativity, procrastination. 

 

And it takes a pro, to “crastinate” (sic). And there was a time when I was world class. I mean, World Class (never turned a paper on time at Cal for two straight years– how do you say, “writer’s block” – but I overcame it, in dramatic fashion, and have basically never missed a deadline since – but that is another story that the Muse just isn’t in the mood to talk about right now, because, damn it, she wants to talk about percentages). 

 

So, it is Thursday evening, and I have to admit, have to confess, have to agree, that perhaps it is time to talk about percentages. Cause the Muse is never wrong, I just don’t always listen, or more accurately, I’m not ready to listen. But again, my Muse, she knows how to deal with me.

 

Ok… she’s got me wrapped around her little finger. But trust me, it’s not such a bad place to be. There is a lot of really good material in that little finger. And she knows if she at least humors me with the illusion of freedom of choice, everyone is going to be a whole lot happier. At least that’s the way I see it. And since she is writing this piece, and I’m just taking notes here, I guess she sees it that way too. Smart gal.  

 

And “a spoonful of sugar, helps the medicine go down, the medicine go down, in a most delightful way…” Julie Andrews said so, another muse, so it must be true… 

 

So, percentages. And why I don’t want to talk about them. 

 

Tennis is playing the odds. You have heard me (the Muse) write about this truth many times in newsletters and other e-mails. We want / need to take actions, follow styles of play, pick targets, position ourselves in ways that increase our chances of winning. Maximize our chances of winning. In a game where there is a very fine line between winning and losing (read on).  

 

The problem is, if you play the percentage, you can still lose. Hate that… more of that “out of my control stuff” …. Too much of that, especially these days. But the smart play is maximize your chances. There can still be random, dumb luck, and / or good play by your opponent. Maybe the opponent is too good. All we can do is our best… 

 

So, there are percentages in playing against COVID-19. And the percentages, at least the way they have been portrayed in the media, can get a bit dark. The media’s job, somebody decided (I’m sure it wasn’t the Divine), was to get our attention with negative stuff (I’m thinking a different word here from “stuff,” but the Muse has class). 

 

And… I don’t really like going dark here, in this space I have created for you, and me. Our little place together. Our community, our club away from club. There is enough dark in the world. So, … I resist (and digress). 

 

But eventually I trust my Muse, and she is saying, “We don’t have to go dark with percentages. In fact, percentages are very positive. It’s how we win in tennis, and in life.” 

 

Well, that’s a relief, and deep down, in that place where listen to the Divine (“Here I am”), trust, breath, and just be, I know she is right. 

 

Time for a little humility, and to just plain admit it, “Forgive my lack of faith, Dear Muse.” A confession. “You are right, I’m wrong.” 

 

So here we go: 

 

Craig O’Shannessy has been featuring a series this week in his blog about winning points in tennis. Maybe the Muse had Craig write this to inspire me and get me off my ass. I don’t put it past her, the wily, cute, lil’ thing, but I digress…yet again. 

 

“Nice try,” says the Muse with a wink -- love that wink.

 

Back to Craig. Do you win more at the baseline, the net, or serve and volley? At Wimbledon, in 20 years (1997-2017), points players finish at the baseline, the winning percentage was 46%, at the net 64%, and if players served and volleyed, 68%. And yet almost everyone stays back (90% of the pro’s practice time, between 90% and 98% of the points played in the last several years), especially the young players. The up and comers, who aren’t getting past the old guys, by the way, in case you haven’t noticed. Same three or four “old” guys keep winning. 

 

Yet, amazingly, even though they don’t practice it much, the young bucks did better when they came in to the net too, but they seldom do. That’s the problem (for them). They don’t get the net game, the results, or the percentages. 

 

If you look at the Wimbledon winners for the past 20 years (1997-2017), the average for the player that won the tournament was 52.5% points won at the baseline (barely half the time, a coin flip; 5 years it was below 50%, even 43% one year!), 68.4% points won at the net, and just serving and volleying came in at 70.6%. 

 

The game has changed at Wimbledon from a game where most everyone came in (1997 and before), to a game where almost everyone stays back, even though the percentages say we should be doing something different. Now there is a lot involved here, some of which O’Shannessy isn’t discussing (like we only play on grass 3-4 weeks of the year, and everyone isn’t training their whole game for those 3-4 weeks of the season, or that coming in is kind of a surprise, and that might boost the odds a bit) but still, there is SOLID evidence that what we are choosing to do, staying back, doesn’t work as well as what we are shying away from. (The net winning percentage is higher than the baseline on all surfaces, even clay). 

 

So, in fighting COVID-19, it’s all about the percentages. We try to increase our odds of staying healthy, by the behaviors we can control. 

 

It has become very apparent (painfully, so painfully), that there are a lot of things that we can’t control, like the existence of the virus. Or the behavior of others (though society does take a shot at trying to control this – with some success). We can’t control the future, or even predict it, or make it all come out alright. We have to let go of all that. 

 

A friend of mine recently said, “I’m letting go, because I have no desire to be dragged.” 

 

Love the wisdom, the humility, and sense of humor in that. (Hmmm… maybe the Muse talks to him too). 

 

But we do have control over our actions, at least to some extent (there is that pesky subconscious in play as well), and some control over our thoughts (again, who knows what lurks below the surface, Dr. Freud – glad my muse doesn’t look like that guy, his beard and that cigar). 

 

And controlling our actions is where we can increase the odds, play the percentages, do our best to win the match, or the war. 

 

Patric and I recently wrote a document of guidelines about how the Club would reopen for the Orindawoods Board. USTA also came out with a document Wednesday 4/22 about reopening guidelines (check it out). We’ve all played and lived the tennis life (I often call it “Living the dream”) for a long time, so these documents were amazingly similar and shared many of the same good ideas for safety and a healthy club environment.  

 

And what they represent is a game of percentages, ways to decrease the odds of us getting the virus or spreading it. Each step, each bullet point, gives us a better chance of staying away from illness. It’s too early to go into all the details for Orindawoods, because as of this date, we are still in Shelter in Place, and we have no idea what the governmental dictates at the time of reopening may be. 

 

But Shelter in Place, right there, is the first, and the most important play, and percentage. At this time, this is our best strategy. Stay in shelter, don’t play. 

 

We all want to play, to get back to tennis, to get back to Orindawoods. And yet, the best thing we can do right now, the thing that will get us back the fastest, is to stay away. Ouch. It is a bit odd, but true. Delayed gratification. We support the Club, and we stay away. A two-prong attack. We’re on the offensive here (See, the Muse is very positive, she’s taking the net and kicking ass). 

 

Add to that physical distancing, masks, gloves, washing hands, cleaning the things we buy and use, etc…. the list of things goes on and on. 5% better chance here, 1% there. I have to go to the store, but only once a week is better than twice. Or at a less busy time. Have my food delivered. It all adds up. Everyone’s survival rate goes up. We protect ourselves, we protect others. 

 

Life style seems to matter. People in better shape, better diet, better access to care, seem to do better. Obesity, diabetes, heart conditions, high cholesterol, lack of health insurance, don’t seem to be so good. In general, tennis players are a healthier lot than the average citizen. 

 

Each person has to decide what level of safety is best for them, within what they have power over. Though the law (and club rules) dictates certain levels of behavior. Each person has to be comfortable with their level. As best we can, to the level we can control. In my house, we have indoor shoes and outdoor shoes. That works for us. Might not for you. Some might say, “That’s over the top,” or on the other hand, “You don’t leave your shoes outside the front door?”

 

So, like in tennis, there may be a style of play that has a better chance of winning. O’Shannessy says coming to the net (especially on grass, but in general, all surfaces, players win a higher percentage at the net), and yet many of us don’t want to do it. 

 

Why? Perhaps it is the way we have trained. Or what we believe, or old habits… or being a rebel to the style of our parents, or it’s harder to learn to play the net and especially transition, but in the end, according to the cold, hard stats, we are playing a lower percentage game than ideal. 

 

There was a great battle in the 90s for trophies, and for the heart and soul of tennis. The two main protagonist, were Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi. One had a big serve, and played a lot from the net, the other had a big return, big groundstrokes, and played from the baseline. These two slugged it out for over ten years, for the hearts and minds of tennis. 

 

And on the court, the clear winner, with far more head-to-head victories, higher rankings, and far more trophies, was Pete Sampras. But when you look at the two styles of play, the next generation followed Andre. Andre won the people’s hearts. Was it his charisma, his style, the force of a truly great, honest, endearing and humble personality? Was it because Pete’s style was old, boring, and time-tested, and Andre’s was new, bold, exciting? A ground-stroke gunslinger. The people’s pirate. Bucked tradition (what generation doesn’t want to buck their parent’s answers?) But now we have a generation or more of players that don’t really come to the net. Especially the next generation, after Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. (See Craig’s excellent blog).

 

In doubles, the percentages dramatically favor net play. The chance of hitting a winner is much less from the back than the front of the court (winners are the most frequent way a point ends in doubles), and balls played from the front have a much better chance of us ending up winning the point. But because we fear the lob, often we back up, off the net, and sacrifice our advantage, due to our fear (see the April 8th e-mail in the "e-mail history" under "information" on the Club website). Fear can have great power over us, and trick us out of our long-term best interests. 

 

So, the percentages can be obvious, and yet we can go the other way. What we need to do to combat COVID-19 just might not be the style we want to play. Are we smart enough to stay at home, to wear face masks, to keep our distance, to wash our hands, ... especially as the curve flattens, things improve, the danger appears to fade, spring is in full force and we start getting restless, and wanting to venture out too soon? 

 

And that’s why the Muse, in all her loving kindness, told me to get off my ass and write about percentages. And yes, maybe she knew I would resist, and that was OK, because even last week, was a bit too soon to talk about percentages. But not today… as our attention seems to turn towards reopening…. And our hearts fill with the dreams of the beloved courts of Orindawoods… remember the percentages. Give yourself the best chance to win the match. 

 

Blessings, 

 

-- Keith